Dynamic Safety Assessment and Enhancement of Port Operational Infrastructure Systems during the COVID-19 Era

Seaports function as lifeline systems in maritime transportation, facilitating critical processes like shipping, distribution, and allied cargo handling. These diverse subsystems constitute the Port Infrastructure System (PIS) and have intricate functional interdependencies. The PIS is vulnerable to several external disruptions, and the impact of COVID-19 is severe and unprecedented in this domain. Therefore, this study proposes a novel general port safety framework to cope with recurring hazards and crisis events like COVID-19 and to augment PIS safety through a multi-state failure system. The PIS is divided into three critical subsystems: shipping, terminal, and distribution infrastructure, thereby capturing its functional interdependency and intricacy. A dynamic input-output model is employed, incorporating the spatial variability and average delay of the disruption, to determine the PIS resilience capacity under the stated disruptions. This study simulates three disruption scenarios and determines the functional failure capacity of the system by generating a functional change curve in Simulink. This study offers viable solutions to port managers, terminal operators, and concerned authorities in the efficient running of intricate interdependent processes and in devising efficient risk control measures to enhance overall PIS resilience and reliability. As part of future studies, given the difficulty in obtaining relevant data and the relatively limited validation of the current model, we aim to improve the accuracy and reliability of our model and enhance its practical applicability to real-world situations with data collected from a real-world case study of a PIS system.

REVISITING TEMPORAL CAUSALITY BETWEEN ISLAMIC FINANCE INSTRUMENTS AND OUTPUT

With the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, financing would again be the crux of the recovery process. This paper revisits existing literature on how financial development promotes growth by focusing on the role of Islamic finance in Malaysia. Specifically, the role of sukuk and loans by Islamic banks on output is examined in Malaysia. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the causal nexus between sukuk, Islamic banking loan, and output using a bootstrap causality test applied to both full sample and rolling window sub-samples. Data ranges from 2000M1-2021M6 for the sukuk market and 2006M12-2021M6 for Islamic banking loans. We rely on bootstrap rolling windows which allow for time-varying causalities within time-series data. Results indicate evidence that Islamic financing instruments, in this case, sukuk and loans by Islamic banks Granger-cause output in the long run. Even in the long run, non-constancy in the parameters is detected for total sukuk, sukuk for finance, and sukuk for transport. The parameter stability tests indicate parameter non-constancy in the short run for total sukuk, sukuk for finance, sukuk for transport, and sukuk for utility for the output-sukuk equation. In the case of Islamic financing via loans, short-run parameter instability is prevalent for all loan–output equations. We take the analysis further by examining the direction of the lead variables on a multi-time scale using continuous wavelet transforms and wavelet coherence. Results show that causality runs from sukuk output for total sukuk, transport, and utility sukuk whereas construction sukuk seems to exhibit a mixed behaviour. In the case of sukuk for finance, the impact is more pronounced in the very-long run. These findings could be a guide for countries intending to use Islamic financing instruments as one of the tools for fiscal stimulus or post-pandemic economic recovery. © 2023, Universiti Malaysia Sarawak. All rights reserved.

Performance of environmentally sound cassava farming as an effort to increase income after covid 19 in the Bengawan Solo Wonogiri Watershed

The limited sources of income in the Wonogiri Regency will impact the tendency of repressive community actions towards empowering surrounding resources, including cassava farmers. After Covid 19, the cassava economy was used as leverage for changes in the rural economy. The objectives of this study are (1) to determine the influence of environmental management on the inputs and outputs of cassava farming, (2) to diagnose fluctuations in the vulnerability of cassava farming, and (3) to analyze cassava problems in production and farming sub-systems. The research locations were in 2 subwatershed of Bengawan Solo areas, namely the Keduang Sub-Watershed (Ngadirojo District and Jatiroto District) and the Wiroko Sub-Watershed (Tirtomoyo District), with 120 respondents. The analysis used is the input-output analysis of farming, descriptive analysis, and t-test analysis. The results showed a difference between an environmentally sound cassava farming business and one that does not, with an error rate of 1% and a coefficient of 1,802% in terms of income (output) and cost (input). The vulnerability occurs when cassava cultivation is processed on a sharp slope of the soil, making it highly costly. The performance of environmentally sound cassava farming positively impacts production and income, but there are limited funds and technology.

Implementation of seasonal differences and sociodemographic factors on the achievement of agribusiness MSME output in the Bengawan Solo Wonogiri Watershed

The socioeconomic characteristics of the community in the Bengawan Solo Hulu watershed allow the agribusiness MSMEs business process to occur in production and significantly impact aspects of socioeconomic life. The limited reliable sources of income will affect the community's tendency to repressive actions. The purpose of the study is (1) to determine the sociodemographic conditions of agribusiness MSME households, (2) to determine the effect of the season on the achievement of agribusiness MSME output, and (3) to find out the solutions of Agribusiness MSMEs. The research method used was a survey on Agribusiness MSMEs by taking locations in 2 Sub-watershed, Alangunggahan Sub-Watershed (Eramoko District) and Keduang Sub-Watershed (Jatipurno District and Jatisrono District) with a total sample of 60 MSMEs. The analysis used is the input-output analysis and Econometric analysis. The results showed that the R2 value was 87.14%, the F test was significant at 95%, and all sociodemographic variables were significant except the age factor of Agribusiness MSME actors. There is a significant seasonal difference in the achievement of agribusiness MSME output. This phenomenon indicates that post-Covid, efforts have risen from the Covid 19, and seasonal differences are considered in decision-making efforts to increase output achievements in the Agribusiness MSME.

A Study on Establishing Thermal Output Conditions of Radiant Ceiling Heating Panels for Improving Thermal Comfort of Perimeter Zone in Buildings

Amid concerns over airflow-induced transmission of the COVID-19 virus in buildings frequented by large numbers of people, such as offices, the necessity for radiant ceiling heating panels has increased. This is due to the concern that the airflows emitted from the convection heating systems installed near the ceiling or windows for winter heating may be a major cause of COVID-19 transmission. In this study, we aim to evaluate thermal comfort under various indoor and outdoor environmental conditions of a building and present the thermal output conditions of the radiant ceiling heating panel that can replace the convection heating system while ensuring comfort in the perimeter zone and handling the heating load. As a result, we were able to present, in a chart format, the thermal output conditions that can secure thermal comfort by analyzing the indoor airflow distribution depending on the surface temperature of the radiant ceiling heating panel, the interior surface temperature of the window, and the influence of internal heat generation. Moreover, through derived empirical formulas, we were able to determine the heating conditions of the panel that can secure the necessary heat dissipation while minimizing discomfort, such as downdrafts, even for indoor and outdoor conditions that were not evaluated in this study.

Economic Recovery Strategy of Sectoral Industries Post-COVID-19: Input-Output Model Simulations

The global COVID-19 pandemic has suppressed the economy and people's welfare, including in Indonesia and Central Java Province, as indicated by the weakening of the national economy by -2.06 percent and locally by -2.65 percent in 2020. Although the economy grew by 3.32 percent in 2021, societal welfare remains lower than in 2019, marked by an increase in unemployment and poverty throughout 2019-2021. Furthermore, the threat of COVID-19 including new variants of the virus continues to weigh on the economy, in 2022 and beyond. This study considered an industrial approach to production, based on inter-industrial linkages and policy simulations with input-output analysis. The objectives of this research are to analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy of Central Java and to formulate an effective economic recovery policy for industry. The results show that the industries affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in Central Java can promote recovery of overall income in economic industry better than the leading industry and the industries with the highest output multipliers, expressed as a proportional increase in final demand for each industry. Meanwhile, the economic recovery strategy of increasing final demand in industries with high output multipliers results in a faster increase in economic output compared with increasing final demand in the affected industries or leading industries.

Potential Output and Output Gap in a Period of Economic Crises

The article investigates potential output and output gap modelling and estimation in the Czech Republic in the period 1996-2021, including the global recession from 2008 and the recent crisis caused by government measures against the COVID-19 pandemic. The unobserved components (UC) methodology is applied, coefficients are estimated by the maximum likelihood method, unobserved variables are estimated using the Kalman filter. The standard UC model is modified in an original way to nonlinearly describe the hysteresis effect by allowing the output gap to have an asymmetrical influence on potential output. The econometric model verification proved significance of the hysteresis effect and showed a substantial inertia of negative consequences of both crises. Predictions of an impact of the War in Ukraine on the gap were also calculated and the uncertainty associated with these predictions was quantified.

Fiscal deficits and the socioeconomic consequences of rebalancing: Insights from a TVP‐VAR with stochastic volatility

This article connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert, Horn, & Paetz, 2019);(ii) the unemployment‐output trade‐off is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behaviour of fiscal deficit shocks and the unemployment‐output trade‐off is studied in this article using a time‐varying parameter (TVP) vector autoregression (VAR) with stochastic volatility techniques applied to the analysis of data from Canada, France, Germany, Japan, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom and the United States of America. We confirm the trade‐off heterogeneity across country, and its time‐varying nature across time, showing in addition its fluctuation around a long‐run reference value. We document significant short‐run impacts of fiscal shocks on the unemployment‐output trade‐off which, based on the experience of the Global Financial Crisis, becomes larger in periods of economic turmoil. Policy‐wise, the rebalancing of public finances may have unexpected adverse effects on job creation if implemented during slumps, precisely when the labour market sensitivity with respect to the performance of the product market is likely to be more acute. This message is particularly relevant in the aftermath of the Covid‐19 pandemic.

Meteorological-Data-Based Modeling for PV Performance Optimization

Developing a sustainable and reliable photovoltaic (PV) energy system requires a comprehensive analysis of solar profiles and an accurate prediction of solar energy performance at the study site. Installing the PV modules with optimal tilt and azimuth angles has a significant impact on the total irradiance delivered to the PV modules. This paper proposes a comprehensive optimization model to integrate total irradiance models with the PV temperature model to find the optimal year-round installation parameters of PV modules. A novel integration between installation parameters and the annual average solar energy is presented, to produce the maximum energy output. The results suggest an increase in energy yields of 4% compared to the conventional scheme, where tilt angle is equal to the latitude and the PV modules are facing south. This paper uses a real-time dataset for the NEOM region in Saudi Arabia to validate the superiority of the proposed model compared to the conventional scheme, but it can be implemented as a scheme wherever real-time data are available.

Uncertainty before and during COVID-19: A survey.

This survey features three parts. The first one reviews the most recent literature on the relationship between domestic (i.e., country-specific) uncertainty and the business cycle, and offers ten main takeaways. The second part surveys contributions to the fast-growing strand of the literature that focuses on the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty spillovers and global uncertainty. The last part presents contributions on the role played by uncertainty during the COVID-19 pandemic.

US post-COVID Economic Recovery and the Fed's Monetary Policy Mistakes

This paper argues that the persistent inflation in the U.S. during the post-COVID economic recovery was mainly the result of the Fed's policy mistake caused by an overestimation of the negative output gap. The paper shows that after a two-quarter contraction, the U.S. economy quickly rebounded and outpaced its potential output, thus remaining in overheating territory. However, policymakers prolonged the monetary expansion beyond the necessary, which contributed to fuel inflation for a more prolonged time. The policy mistake was the result of an inaccurate estimation of potential output. Based on an alternative estimation that uses full employment as a condition, this paper shows that the U.S. economy has been running with a positive output gap since mid-2021. The results illustrate that the Federal Reserve was well-behind the curve in an economy in overexpansion and with a galloping inflation escalating well-above the target.

Assessing the Zoom learning experience of the elderly under the effects of COVID in Hong Kong: application of the IPO model

PurposeThis study aims to investigate the perceptions of elderly learners in experiencing Zoom learning under the effects of COVID in the case of Hong Kong. Design/methodology/approachAn online survey and focus group interviews have been conducted with quantitative and qualitative approaches, respectively. The survey design was based on the input-process-output (IPO) model conceptual framework and used to assess students' perceptions regarding their Zoom learning experiences at the Elder Academy of Hong Kong Metropolitan University. Thereafter, selected students were invited to participate in focus group interviews to offer more in-depth comments for analysis purposes. Statistical Product and Service Solutions software and SmartPLS were used for data analysis of the survey, and content analysis was used to summarize opinions from the focus group interviews;thus, a comprehensive picture of elderly learners' learning experiences on Zoom is presented. FindingsAn overall positive perception was the result of elderly learners' Zoom learning journeys, particularly in the "input" and "process" stages of the IPO model. Yet, their perception of the "learning outcomes achieved" level in the "output" stage was lower among the rest, thus strongly affected by the factors of "interactions" and "teaching" experienced by elderly learners on Zoom. Although the perception of the youngest age group was more positive, none have agreed that Zoom learning was more favourable when compared with the traditional face-to-face mode. Originality/valueGiven Zoom as the short-term replacement option under the COVID pandemic, this study will provide recommendations for educators/institutions to improve their design of the whole learning process for elderly learners on the Zoom platform.

Shifting from academic air travel to sustainable research exchange: Examining networking efficacy during virtual conferences

Academic conferences are important places for exchanging scientific knowledge and building professional networks, but they also contribute to climate change through emissions caused by air travel. Hence, more sustainable conferences are needed. The unforeseen COVID-19 pandemic presented an opportunity to develop more sustainable conferences by shifting to effective virtual communication. Studies have demonstrated that virtual conferences are often more sustainable, but also more inclusive than in-person conferences, but that they – like in-person conferences – also have drawbacks. Researchers perceive ineffective networking due to a lack of social interaction as the biggest disadvantage of current virtual conferences. This study aims to examine researchers' experiences with virtual conferences by investigating the factors that influence networking efficacy during virtual conferences. To do so, 21 semi-structured interviews were conducted with virtual conference organisers and attendees from various career stages, countries and scientific fields. The input-process-output framework was used to structure the factors that participants mentioned as facilitating or constraining networking. The results demonstrate conference organisers' important role in thinking carefully about technical equipment that facilitates networking and specifically planning virtual conferences' networking sessions. This study is the first to structure factors that influence networking efficacy systematically during virtual conferences. The results of this study revealed that best practice examples of effective virtual networking exist, thus providing a starting point for the shift from academic air travel to more sustainable research exchange.

Assessment of the Contribution of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises to the Output of the Cities of Republican Significance in Kazakhstan

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SME) development in the regions of Kazakhstan is characterised by substantial imbalances. The cities of republican significance - Nur-Sultan and Almaty - are leading in terms of SME performance indicators. However, the quantitative development of such enterprises in these cities does not always lead to a corresponding increase in their contribution to output. Meanwhile, literature lacks studies on this relationship and its causal analysis necessary to provide scientific substantiation of the state policy to support SME development in regions. The present article aims to assess the contribution of SMEs to the output of the cities of republican significance and find solutions to the problems hindering business development. It is hypothesised that there is a weak linear correlation between the number of operating SMEs and output in Nur-Sultan and Almaty. The study utilised the Pearson correlation method, comparative and causal analysis. The presence of a positive correlation between the number of operating SMEs and the production output in the studied regions was confirmed, although, according to the correlation coefficient value, this relationship is weak. The suboptimal structure of the SME sector, as well as the low labour productivity in small enterprises are the key reasons for the weak correlation. Recommendations to stimulate the activities of SMEs were formulated based on the analysis of hindering factors (including inefficient government support). It is concluded that the reduction of the SME sector due to the COVID-19 pandemic in some way positively affected the market, since ineffectively functioning entities were eliminated. Thus, the state should focus on the targeted support and directly stimulate strong players capable of self-renewal. The research results can be useful to the state and local authorities to create measures to support SMEs and regional business regulation policy.

The economic contribution of the cultural sector in Brazil: an input-output approach with different income groups

Brazil is characterized by strong income inequality, which is naturally reflected in the consumption of goods and services. Such disparities in access are also reproduced in the artistic and cultural activities sector. Thus, understanding the cultural sector as key to the development of society, the present article evaluates the intersectoral impact of the artistic and cultural activities sector on other sectors of the Brazilian economy. First, this analysis identifies the effects of COVID-19, which allows us to determine how the sector is affected by such a shock in terms of output, employment and income. Subsequently, the relevance of the cultural sector is evaluated by identifying different family income groups with the 2015 input-output matrix published by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and information from the Family Budget Survey (POF). The main results indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic, specifically, its effect on the cultural sector, reduced the production of cultural activities by 31.8%, equating to a loss of 237,701 jobs. This result indicates the relevance of the cultural sector for the Brazilian economy. In addition, we show that low income families, a group representing more than 70% of households, are responsible for only 28% of all Brazilian household consumption in the cultural sector. However, families in the highest income bracket, i.e. less than 3% of households, account for 22% of this sector. This result underscores the importance of developing public policies to stimulate consumption among low income groups, given that in addition to the cultural sector's economic benefits, there are intangible benefits of cultural activity for society.

Drivers of employment effects in tourism-related sectors: the case of Mainland China

PurposeTourism is a labor-intensive sector with extensive links to other industries and plays a vital role in creating employment. This study aims to propose a new framework to analyze the intrinsic structure of the employment effects of tourism-related sectors and their drivers.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses input–output and structural decomposition analysis (IO-SDA) to quantify the employment effects of tourism-related sectors and their driving mechanisms based on China's I-O tables of 2002, 2007, 2012 and 2017.FindingsThe results show a declining trend in the intensity of direct or indirect employment effects in tourism-related sectors, indicating a decreasing number of jobs directly or indirectly required to create a unit of tourism output. Among tourism-related sectors, catering has the highest intensity of indirect employment effects over the study period. Catering stimulates the indirect employment of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and food and tobacco manufacturing. The decomposition analysis reveals that final demand is the largest contributor to the increase in tourism employment, while technological progress shifts from an employment-creation effect in 2002–2012 to an employment-destruction effect in 2012–2017.Originality/valueThis study proposes a new analytical framework to investigate the structural proportional relationship between the direct and indirect employment effects of various tourism-related sectors and their dynamic changes. Doing so, it provides valuable references for policymakers to promote tourism employment.

On the employment and health impact of the COVID-19 shock on Italian regions: a value chain approach

We evaluate the exposure of Italian regions to employment and the health risk associated with the spread of COVID-19. First, we estimate the degree of participation of Italian regions in a plurality of value chains linked to consumption, investment and exports. Second, we investigate the different levels of contagion risk associated with each value chain and the possibility of reducing such risk through remote work. We find that regions are affected differently by lockdown policies because of their highly heterogeneous embeddedness in different value chains, and their diverse sectoral contributions to each of them. © 2023 Regional Studies Association.

The Effects of the Pandemic on the Research Output and Strategies of Early Career Researchers and Doctoral Candidates

The COVID-19 pandemic has shaken research in higher education in unexpected ways (OECD, 2021). While it sped up the transition to online and virtual modes of learning within the academe, it also generated significantly higher levels of anxiety and depression among university-based researchers (Chirikov et al., 2020). Higher education institutions adopted widespread changes in teaching loads and research policy at break-neck speed, often to the dismay of early career researchers and doctoral candidates. This chapter investigates the impact of the global health crisis on the research output and strategies of early career researchers and doctoral candidates at universities around the world. It reviews the literature on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on research output and strategies. The chapter also incorporates recent findings from the author's research project, which investigates the long-term impact of the pandemic on academic writing strategies and output among doctoral candidates (following on from results previously published in Cahusac de Caux (2021)). © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2022.

Girdi-Çıktı Analizinde Varsayımsal Çıkarma Yöntemi: Batı Akdeniz Bölgesi'nde (TR61) Sektörel Kapanmanın Etki Analizi 1

Bu çalışmada sektörel kapanmaların Batı Akdeniz Bölgesi (TR61-Antalya, Isparta, Burdur) üzerindeki ekonomik etkileri varsayımsal çıkarma yöntemi ile analiz edilmiştir. Ayrıca, çıktı ve hanehalkı çarpanları ile hem geleneksel hem de varsayımsal çıkarma yöntemi kullanılarak bulunan geri ve ileri baǧlantı ölçüleri, kapanmanın etkilerini ve çıkış yollarını çözümleyebilmek için bir arada yorumlanmıştır. Bu amaca yönelik olarak 2017 yılı için kurulmuş bölgesel Girdi-Çıktı tablosu kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın bulguları, kapanmasının bölge ekonomisi üzerinde en fazla küçülme yarattıǧı sektörlerin turizm, taşımacılık ve lojistik, tarım, gıda sanayii ve inşaat sektörleri olduǧuna işaret etmektedir. Ayrıca, turizm sektörünün kapanmasının, en fazla olumsuz etkilediǧi sektör balıkçılık sektörü olmuştur.Alternate :This study analyses the economic effects of the sectoral lockdowns on the Western Mediterranean Region (TR61-Antalya, Isparta, Burdur) in Türkiye by employing the Hypothetical Extraction Method-HEM. The analyses used the year-2017 regional input-output table established for TR61. In addition, the study interprets the output and household income multipliers with the forward and backward linkage coefficients estimated by both the conventional approach and the HEM to find the impacts of lock-down and measures to recover. The study's findings point out that the sectoral lockdown created the most significant contraction in the region in tourism, transportation and logistics, agriculture, food industry and construction sectors. Moreover, the fishing sector is the sector most negatively affected by the lockdown of the tourism sector.

GLOBAL PRODUCTION NETWORKS IN THE REGIONAL ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK: CASE OF THE EU PERIPHERAL AUTOMOTIVE MANUFACTURING

Recent transformations following the global financial crisis of 2009, COVID-19 pandemic, supply chains disruptions and newest shocks have radically reshaped global production landscape and challenged comparative benefits of global production networks (GPN) vs global value chains (GVC) paradigms in international production analysis. The study tests the hypothesis that GPN concept allows for a better identification of structural shifts in international production structures while revealing regional patterns of cooperation. In the first section, the main methodological constraints of GVC paradigm are specified. Additionally, the reasons for the application of network-based approach to international production are outlined. The second section dissects the EU automotive manufacturing to support the theoretical propositions. While comparing GVC and GPN quantitative toolkits, the possible trade-off has been reached which is to calculate network indicators (transitivity, centrality, etc.) on the inter-country input-output tables. As a result, the hypothesis was confirmed. Specifically, betweenness centrality metric suggests that Czechia and Slovakia have immediately favoured a positive effect of the entry into the EU, whereas neither of GVC indicators reveals such a shift. Simultaneously, 2008 crisis is depicted via GVC indicators, whilst network metrics suggest no structural changes in the production system. These results corroborate to our theoretical juxtaposition of GVC/GPN approaches. The methodological cohesion of two sets of indicators further advances the views on European regional core-periphery integration and automotive production networks dynamics. At the same time, the findings may contribute to the reassessment of regional integration developments in Europe, as well as in Latin America and Eurasia. © González G. H., Sapir E. V., Vasilchenko A. D. Text. 2023.